Cyclones could drive the price of oil to $80 a barrel according to a senior Iranian oil official. "Based on forecasts, within the next three months ... the increase in gasoline consumption, seasonal storms and problems in Nigeria's oil supply will cause the price of oil to seriously increase," he was quoted as saying. We executed a price performance simulation on AMEX oil index, and discovered at 3 months there are no significant patterns, that is, historically there are no significant parallels.

Our 6 month analysis demonstrated otherwise -- 69.23% of its most similar 6 month price charts to today proceeded with an average of 6.24% growth within six months historically. So did the 1 month forecast at 71.42% probability of price appreciating at 2.09% within 1 month.

Perhaps, there's something to it, we are creatures of repetition, look at the best match for the most recent 6 month price chart -- 1992-10-23 to 1993-04-16. Yes, 1992, the first Iraq war.