The Dow component's price trends remain weak at an average of 60% probability of an uptrend within 1 month. Detail price analysis of each component is available within the links below; drill in to determine historical price consistency of similar chart patterns for this month based on 30 years of price data.

50% ibm
50% mmm
38% jpm
42% dd
46% ge
57% aa
85% xom
46% c
64% axp
53% hon
50% hd
71% mcd
71% pg
46% pfe
57% gm
38% mrk
50% aig
50% msft
64% vz
71% ko
50% wmt
61% ba
46% cat
61% hpq
78% jnj
64% dis
53% t
64% utx
50% intc
76% mo

JP Morgan Chase price analysis may explain why CEO James Dimon said what he said --"The recession is just starting. " As for its implications to JPM, it wasn't a surprise for me, even with the fire sale of Bear Stearns. Historically, investor sentiment for JPM compared to today's pricing dynamics aren't reassuring. Sampling over 20 years of JPM price patterns similar to today at various ticks exposed weak historical performances.

Historically the majority of JPM 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 month price charts similar to today have generally resulted in a downward trend. The correlation of the causations are significant, for the most part well below the statistically healthy range for the ticks sampled.

To understand today's market, it's essential to remember past performance. A one year price analysis of oil and gold/silver seem to confirm each others sentiment, a cycle of some sort in agreement -- price fluctuations of both are most similar (1, 2) to 1995. Two discrete price charts from oil and gold/silver from 30 years reference 1995 for being most similar to this year, reference chart below. The green highlight is a simulation from 1995 that is most similar to today, proceeding it, notice the pull back of gold, the spike, and finally tapering off. Oil on the other hand had a steady climb.

For oil, the price simulations historically (1994, 1990, 2000, 1984, etc.) say basically the same thing, strength in conflict. For eample, in 1995, the effects on oil prices due to the Iraq-Kuwait border confrontation was obvious, the charts explain it, as is the case now, "..followed a fairly similar pattern. Prior to a crisis, oil futures market curves generally slope upward.."

As for gold, if you referenced the prices historically (1994, 2005, 1989, 2003, etc.) -- spike on uncertainty then tappering off within a year. There were also some interesting parallels in 1995 to today, such as the I.M.F. May Sell Gold to Cut Debt Load of Poor with the recent announcement that the IMF may sell 400 tons of gold. A year later, bankers and option traders scaled down gold's price, according to this.

What is interesting, the majority of the simulations for oil and gold from sampling 30 years of data seem to compliment each other and the fundamentals.