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February Dow Component Analysis

The 30% anomaly in a set of healthy trends signaled a concern to run further analysis. An analysis was executed on each of the Dow components and what follows is bothering, a large set of the components for the next 30 days are weak. 60% is within the lower bounds, and 70% is the lower bounds of a healthy trend. What follows is the analysis. A common trend among the components is the lower bounds are below 60%, not a good signal.

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ba
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dd
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gm
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hon
hpq
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jpm
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mmm
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msft
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Dow Chart Patterns Gaining Strength

For the most part, the Dow 1, 2, and 4 month chart patterns are projecting healthy trend casts, although I am concerned about an anomaly, the 2 month chart pattern is only at 30%.

1 Month Chart Pattern - 76%
2 Month Chart Pattern - 30%
3 Month Chart Pattern - 76%
4 Month Chart Pattern - 69%

Dow Chart Pattern -- Not Yet

The Dow continue to cast weak short term chart patterns. The 1 month chart pattern is at 46.15% probability of an up-trend based on similar chart patterns. To make matters ominous, the 2 month chart pattern is at 30.77%, the normal range is above 60%, the healthy range is above 70%. According to the technicals, it's doesn't seem to be over yet.

Footnote: the indicator was in the 30% range Monday, speckled with 1978 to 1982 range of chart patterns that are highly similar. You may recall the similarity to Carter's economy documented here a while back.