Dow August Hot Again

This month's signal has suddenly popped to 79% probability for an uptrend of 2% in the Dow. Interestingly, it maps neatly to the signal on June 5th, 2007.

Startingly, the best fit for this month is August of 1978, which was a prelude to the October Massacre of 1978. The similarity to this time period emerged this month, and is most probably a demo of that time period's sentiment -- look at this cartoon from that time period. I will keep a watchful eye on the development of this pattern.

September chart patterns are still weak.

Random walkers may find this study insightful: Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test