Is it significantly probable for next week's housing report to introduce an upside? Patterns from the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund (IYR) is saying it's very likely according to the outcomes of similar historical price charts.

Similar charts to IYR's one, two, and 3 month price chart have historically trended in positive territory under similar pricing circumstances. The probabilities of an uptrend for IYR relative to today's price are significant: 85% within one month, 77% within two months, and 92% within 3 months. The resilience is extremely remarkable, considering homebuilder's sentiment.

It should be interesting to observer how the patterns are affected next week, an interesting conjecture is significant influencial positions exist, hence the significant probabilities.

Is the Dow showing signs of breakdown or learning the dynamics of record breaking terrain? Several days after the initial positive Dow forecast here, signs of trending have disappeared, which may negatively impact the index for up to 3 months. Simulations have lost stability from trending patterns being void in the 1, 2, and 3 month forecasts. The current chart patterns have no equivalent historical charts that are consistent in price growth.

The results of the similar charts discovered for the most current one, two, and three month charts demonstrate weakness. Only 46% of the most similar one month chart patterns have a probability of growth, 61% for two month, and 46% for 3 month. The similar historical circumstances are chaotic, that is, there are no consistent outcome. What it doesn't say may be of more value, there are no patterns, for now. Fortunately, the 6 month chart patterns are fiery at 84.62% probability of growth.

Within the next couple of months, the Dow and S&P 500 has an average 75% probability of gaining 2.5%. Interestingly, it seems to be counter-intuitive.

Tickersense says "this is not the time to buy and hold. " Anecdotally, I would presume big moves are usually accompanied by pullbacks; its the natural state of organisms, including the financial markets.

I was curious and ready to discover what occurred historically. The analysis were based on comparing the most recent month's price charts patterns for the dow and s&p 500. The results are significant.

For the one month analysis, the dow and s&p 500 has a 78% and 71% probability of gaining roughly 2%. For the two month analysis, the dow and s&p 500 has 76% and 69% gaining roughly 2.5%.

Gold is hot again.

A couple of significant signals were discovered along with the initial bullish signal posted here on June 9th, 2007. The two and three month forecasts are lustrous, that is, the similar price charts in the past has been fairly consistent with an average uptrend of 5%.

Dow is also looking pretty at 78% probability of ascending at 1.90% for July 13th to Aug 13th. The original signal can be found  here.