To make a long story short, do it here

Unfortunately, it's impossible for the human eyes to intelligently scan decades of chart images for similarities in seconds. The chances of recognizing them are nill, just as recognizing brokers in New York's bar Hogs and Heifers at 3:00 AM on Thursday nights, shape shifting out of their brooks brothers for a bar maid's challenge, to swig a shot in the blink of an eye; couple of hours later they are barely recognizable.

Recognizing chart patterns are challenging, whether you're human or machine.To assist in recognition for technical analysis, charts are superimposed with lines to aid in identifying chart patterns by generalizing their appearance, whereas datawink chart patterns compare the images without crutches such as linear generalizations.

To further complicate matters, chart patterns are lossy; they mutate, and evolve due to stimulus. Over a period of time, they become unrecognizable, and finding a suitable match is daunting without noise cancelation and neural networks.

Fortunately, artificial intelligence is providing tremendous infastructure to overcome these challenges.It will become self evident how these noisy but similar patterns are discovered -- from searching for their uncompromised pattern. Figure 1 demonstrates how the essence of the green charts are similar to the red chart. You may find your own here for any security.

Price chart patterns are constantly evolving and mutating by digitally mirroring methods players utilize to drive price. Whether its that hot scoop, head fake, etc. After a while, their setups become old and predictable.

What an abrupt change:
Gold rallies on physical demand, technical buy
Gold rebounds on physical demand, technical buying
Gold Futures Rebound

from last week:
Gold tumbles, as dollar rallies, crude oil falls
The Gold Bull Run Is Over. Here's Why

Stale news for the unwashed masses. Just remember, you saw it here first.

Cyclones could drive the price of oil to $80 a barrel according to a senior Iranian oil official. "Based on forecasts, within the next three months ... the increase in gasoline consumption, seasonal storms and problems in Nigeria's oil supply will cause the price of oil to seriously increase," he was quoted as saying. We executed a price performance simulation on AMEX oil index, and discovered at 3 months there are no significant patterns, that is, historically there are no significant parallels.

Our 6 month analysis demonstrated otherwise -- 69.23% of its most similar 6 month price charts to today proceeded with an average of 6.24% growth within six months historically. So did the 1 month forecast at 71.42% probability of price appreciating at 2.09% within 1 month.

Perhaps, there's something to it, we are creatures of repetition, look at the best match for the most recent 6 month price chart -- 1992-10-23 to 1993-04-16. Yes, 1992, the first Iraq war.

thestreet.com reminded us about the perils of gold, the headlines flashed in the course of the day on Friday , June 8th 2007:

gold-tumbles-dollar-rallies-crude
gold-tumbles-over-2-dollar
Gold Slides as Dollar Climbs
gold-falls-sharply-pressured-dollar
gold-falls-stronger-dollar-higher

Simon Constable from thestreet.com, writer of those linked articles cite the gold stock technician, who states a topping formation has materialized for gold. JP Morgan is contradicting with indian weddings and golden pigs, speculating gold will touch $1000.

Our analysis is technically in sync with JP, finding significant uptrend probabilities within couple of months, consisting of patterns beyond the scope of technical analysis. For now, here's to JP Morgan's pursuit of that bright and lovely resource, enjoy the tune from ole blue eyes.

On June 5, 2007 at 2:00 AM EDT, you will recall Dow negative signals posted here for the next couple of months, a complementing signal would be GLD, which is demonstrating crisp up signals. That is, 76.92% of its most similar monthly charts to today proceeded with an average of 3.54% within one month historically. Click on the GLD symbol above for an indepth analysis.

Update 2008

Index	Forecast Range	Price Probability
DOW	June	61% probability up 1.79%
DOW	June - July	61% probability up 2.23%
DOW	June - August	76% probability up 4.10%
S&P500	June	61% probability up 1.66%
S&P500	June - July	76% probability up 1.96%
S&P500	June - August	76% probability up 4.01%

According to similar historical performances, for the next couple of months, the Dow and S&P 500 price performance will weaken, however the price will remain in positive territory relative to today. Most profitably,  August seems to be a hot month for the Dow and S&P 500. I remember Wallstreet on those August days on Battery park, having viewed capitalism in its rawest form.

Three of them, scurrying about  selling M&M candy from the backdrop of Wallstreet on Battery park by Moran's.  At most 9 years old, they moved in on prospects twice their height pushing a yellow parcel. They were handed unfavorable wealth cards in life but  realized it doesn't matter how the opportunities look when they arrive, but what you make of them.

The usual prospect would grumble and shuffle along, perhaps the kids were obstacles in their way to home and beer.  Fortunately, the kids always pressed on, i've never seen them unravel as kids would.

I wonder what ever became of them, last i've seen of them was when I left Wallstreet in 1999.  Did character forging at such a young age produce topnotch performers? Or was it destined for the  law of averages to pick their pockets clean of hope?