They Say Recession Is Near

This month's projections are encouraging, that is, 84.62% of the most similar charts for 4/27/2007 to 5/27/2007 are trending up for the Dow. Likewise, 61.54% for the S&P 500, 64.29% for the Russel 2000, and 100% for the Nasdaq Composite -- impressive projections. As always there's another perspective, unfortunately, it's lacking teeth.

According to Economy Crawls, Raising Recession Fears, before year end, the markets will be engulfed in a housing spillover. While reading, I wondered if quality is being sacrificed at the cost of furious content generation.

Statements from Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan are void of hard numbers; the scarcity of questions to these gentlemen are disappointing. For instance, from the article "Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has put the chance of a recession this year at one in three." How did Mr. Greenspan arrive at this statistic? Then there is "Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, however, has said he doesn't believe the economic expansion, now in its sixth year, is in danger of fizzling out. Neither does the Bush administration." Once again, how did Mr. Bernanke arrive at this conclusion?

This type of complexity is prevalent within the financial industry; correlating causality will illuminate retail investors -- a 6 month simulation was performed for the Dow and S&P 500, and the results are healthy. For the Dow's current 6 month price chart, 84.62% of the 13 most similar charts are trending up, likewise 76.92% for the S&P 500. Trillions of transactions, some before your time, alive once again to remind the retail investor that the markets are in good health, atleast for now.