Healthy Verizon
In anticipation to Verizons earnings report, several simulations were ran and for the most part the performances are healthy. A healthy report is indicative of this, to some degree it's the coiling of an investors sentiment.
| Verizon - Performance Simulations For 1/29/07 To 2/29/07 |
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Right-Sizing Pfizer
| PFE - 1 Month Simulation for 1-21-07 to 2-21-07 |
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| PFE - 1 Year Simulation for 1-21-07 to 1-21-08 |
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As a side-note, several signals from the 1 month simulation reference the late 80s, below are couple of incidents that occurred in those time periods.
- Multinational Monitor magazine listed Pfizer as one of the ten worst companies in 1988 following Pfizer's rupturing heart valves which caused 252 deaths.
- Afterwards in the early 90s the industry were laying-off, "right-sizing" their sales forces due to vocal critics complaints about excesses.
Emerging Markets And Technology
Sector analysis for technology (QQQQ) is weak, and emerging market (VWO) is strong. Below are couple of simulations that span 18-Jan-07 to 18-Feb-07. The similar historical outcomes for VWO are significantly consistent, within all simulations, trend-lines are ascending consistently (green charts); not the case for QQQQ. Click on a chart to zoom in.
| Emerging markets - Strong |
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| Technology - Weak |
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The Evolution Of A Toolset
Throughout the decades, the investment domain has evolved, whereas Technical Analysis has only matured, therein lies the disparity - the defect. The toolset hasn't evolved for retail, and for the most part an incredible institutional advantage exist. The advantage is further compounded by the internet, an effective medium that proportionately maintains the status quo , while investors diligently search for a ripple and expect a ship nearby.
The current toolset is incapable of consistently calculating decades of information effectively, it should be that simple. Human interpretation is heavily en-grained into the process, such as interpreting curves and lines. Obviously, results will be chaotic, its based on the oscillating sentiment of an investor. Theres a better way.
Artificial vision that scans decades of charts for similarities (similarity mode), and correlates their outcomes looking for consistency (predictability mode). Fortunately, this behavior is mechanized and executed in seconds, instead of years with the human eyes. The remarkable aspect of the technology is that responses to stimuli are observable and you can quickly determine consistency by determining if significant (80%) trending is occurring in the same direction.
The blog was implemented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the tool, pay attention to the posted signals. You may read more here
Dow and S&P Performance
For this year, the Dow and S&P 500 simulations are projecting a significant up-trend chart pattern, which has been case since October of last year. Reference the two charts below, click to zoom in.
Unfortunately, there are no signals for the DOW nor S&P this month, which leads me to speculate their performance will weaken this month, January 2007.
For brief documentation as to how to interpret these charts, read this
| Dow 1 Year Simulation - 86% Up Trend |
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| S&P 500 1 Year Simulation - 100% Up Trend |
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| Dow 1 Month Simulation - No Signal | |
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| S&P 500 1 Month Simulation - No Signal | |
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Thanks Google
After the run-up last week, it's time to search elsewhere - 50% of Googles outcomes for this months most similar historical circumstances are trending downwards, which isn't reassuring, especially when it's void of a signal. Further analysis via the 2 month, 3 month, and 6 month simulations also produced no signals.
WTI - Closed Door Meetings
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| [RED CHART] = NOW [GREEN CHART] = HISTORICAL OUTCOMES [ZOOM IN] |
Apple - Caught In A Time Loop
Apple seems poised for a good year, but be reminded, we were here before and it didn't end so well. Even products comprable in stature to the iphone couldn't tip the scale.
